Monday, 5 November 2007

IHT - the fairest of them all?

Last week, The Economist wrote this about Inheritance Tax:

Taxes should be assessed on three grounds: how they affect incentives, how fair they are and how simple. Estate taxes score well on the first two, less satisfactorily on the third.

Are they right? On the first point, efficiency, the answer at the moment is that we just don’t know. The efficiency of IHT depends heavily on whether people who die rich have intentionally remained rich to pass on their wealth to their kids. If this is the case (and these parents actually care about how much their kids receive, rather than gaining utility from the act of giving itself) then IHT will distort behaviour, tending to reduce the incentives to work and save. If, however, most people who die with assets were holding them as insurance against living a lot longer, then IHT would cause next to no distortions and would be a very efficient tax. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to empirically disentangle peoples' motives, so we don't currently know which is more prevalent.

The Economist are right, however, in pointing out that IHT improves the work and savings incentives of children of the rich. Expecting to receive a huge inheritance surely can’t be good for your entrepreneurial zeal.

IHT does fare better on the second point, equity, as it is paid exclusively by the rich. Only 6% of estates pay it and the fact that this will rise slightly over the next few years indicates simply that more people are becoming rich (it doesn't matter whether this is from a property boom or from anything else). On the downside, the many loopholes allow the very rich to avoid paying any IHT, leaving the rising middle classes to shoulder the burden. There is also Tim Worstall’s argument that rich kids are an equalising force in themselves, through their profligate spending habits. Overall, IHT does seem to promote a more equal society, based on merit rather than fortune (and would do a better job with a lower threshold than £600k).

On the third point, simplicity, the UK's tax is actually a better option in many ways than a pure inheritance tax (the option favoured by The Economist - along with the crazy French idea of varying the rate according to the closeness of blood ties between bequester and inheritor). While taxing inheritances directly would be far more equitable and would encourage the spreading of bequests, it would be an administrative nightmare compared to the relatively simple single probate system currently in force. It would also create a whole new raft of avoidance possibilities. A better option for the UK would be to simplify the current regime and cut out many of the loopholes currently exploited by the rich, especially the use of trusts.

Sunday, 4 November 2007

Guestblogger in the house

I am out of town for a week with limited access to the internet, and a fine economist and good friend has agreed to guestblog here at Bluematter. while I am away. Most of you are not my mom, but I thought I'd let you know anyways.

Rational discrimination

Chris Dillow links to this very clever paper (free access):

We provide a test for statistical discrimination or "rational" stereotyping in environments in which agents learn over time. Our application is to the labor market. If profit maximizing firms have limited information about the general productivity of new workers, they may choose to use easily observable characteristics such as years of education to "statistically discriminate" among workers. As firms acquire more information about a worker, pay will become more dependent on actual productivity and less dependent on easily observable characteristics or credentials that predict productivity.


When you start out on a job, employers have to make do with easily available information about you (years of education, race, etc). As the employer observes individual productivity first-hand, however, this information becomes obsolete. So, if employers are fully rational and internalise the additional information efficiently, education and other easily observable characteristics should become increasingly weaker predictors of wages. The way they test for this is by utilising additional variables for characteristics that are not easily observable but are correlated with productivity:

Consider a wage equation that contains both the interaction between experience and a hard-to-observe variable that is positively related to productivity and the interaction between experience and a variable that firms can easily observe, such as years of education. We show that the wage coefficient on the unobservable productivity variable should rise with time in the labor market and the wage coefficient on education should fall. We investigate this proposition using panel data on education, the AFQT test, father’s education, and wages for young men and their siblings from NLSY. [...] Our results support the hypothesis of statistical discrimination.

So far, so good. But the authors also go on to test for discrimination on the basis or race; econometric specification issues aside, their results are worrying:

We use a similar methodology to investigate whether employers statistically discriminate on the basis of race. If our model is taken literally, the small race differentials for new workers and the spread in the race gap with experience is most consistent with the view that race is negatively correlated with productivity and the productivity gap becomes reflected in wages as fims acquire additional information that can legally be used to differentiate among workers. We wish to stress however, that other factors are probably as or more important in differences between whites and blacks in wage profiles, and race differences in human capital accumulation accounts for at least part of our findings.

Thursday, 1 November 2007

Discussions on economics

Xenophon, Works on Socrates:

I once heard him discuss the subject of estate management (in Greek: οικονομία, economics) in the following manner.
“Tell me, Critobulus, is estate management the name of a branch of knowledge, like medicine, smithing and carpentry?” “I think so,” replied Critobulus.[...]

“But what do we mean now by an estate? [5] Is it the same thing as a house, or is all property that one possesses outside the house also part of the estate?”
“Well, I think that even if the property is situated in different cities, everything a man possesses is part of his estate.”
[6] “Do not some men possess enemies?”
“Of course; some in fact possess many.”
“Shall we include their enemies in their possessions?”
“It would be ridiculous, surely, if one actually received a salary for increasing the number of a man's enemies!”
[7] “Because, you know, we supposed a man's estate to be the same as his property.”
“To be sure--meaning thereby the good things that he possesses. No, of course I don't call any bad thing that he may possess property.”
“You seem to use the word property of whatever is profitable to its owner.”
“Certainly; but what is harmful I regard as loss rather than wealth.”[...]

[10] “That is to say, the same things are wealth and not wealth, according as one understands or does not understand how to use them. A flute, for example, is wealth to one who is competent to play it, but to an incompetent person it is no better than useless stones.”
“True--unless he sells it.”
[11] “We now see that to persons who don't understand its use, a flute is wealth if they sell it, but not wealth if they keep it instead of selling.”
“Yes, Socrates, and our argument runs consistently, since we have said that what is profitable is wealth. For a flute, if not put up for sale, is not wealth, because it is useless: if put up for sale it becomes wealth.”


Through a few vias originating at The Visible Hand in Economics and a post entitled Was Jesus an early applied economist?

Friday Special 26

Google trends on economics: (1) Seasonality (2) Negative trend (3) Top source: Pakistan

The worlds top 5 smallest countries

Are you tone-deaf?

Death, and more death

Simulating the life of bugs

Who owns who in the motor industry

Science reporting explained


Via Social Science Statistics. The Dilbert blog is, of course, by far the best economics blog amongst nominally-non-economics blogs out there.

Japan's Phillips curve

...looks like Japan!


Via Marginal Revolution.